Leasing, Automotive, and Industrial Sector
Light vehicles — The best first quarter in 22 years. Yes, you read that right.
March 2026 closed with sales of 131,548 light vehicles, a 2.4% year-over-year increase versus March 2025. Even more significant: it is the highest volume for a March since 2018, and the second-best historical record for that month. For the cumulative first quarter (January–March), the sector totaled 381,632 units, a 3.7% annual increase — the highest record for a start of year in 22 years. If brands that do not report directly to INEGI — BYD, GAC, Chirey, and Omoda — are added, the quarterly total would reach 405,899 units, a 5.0% increase.
The fuel behind this acceleration has a name and an origin: aggressive promotional campaigns from automakers, accessible financing plans, and the sustained emergence of Asian brands. Geely, Jetour, and MG posted triple- and double-digit growth. Traditional brands — Nissan, GM, Toyota, Honda, Mazda — reported slight declines. The market did not contract: it changed hands. An important distinction.
"The fact that the best first quarter in 22 years is being led by brands that five years ago nobody could even spell is, at the very least, an invitation to review the composition of the automotive portfolio by brand and residual value."
Institutional impact: A dynamic market with a shifting brand mix: Chinese brands are gaining share but have a shorter track record of residual value in the Mexican secondary market. For leasing: residual analysis by brand and model becomes critical. Not all SUVs are equal when it comes time to sell. There is an opportunity in corporate fleet financing, where the brand of the asset matters less than the service contract behind it.
Heavy Vehicles — The Quarter That Would Rather Be Forgotten
If light vehicles were the first quarter's fairy tale, heavy vehicles were the other story. From January to March 2026, heavy vehicle production fell 30.4% year-over-year, with 28,765 units manufactured versus 41,316 in the same period of 2025. Exports plunged 30.3%, to 23,550 units, the worst historical record for a first quarter. The tractor-trailer segment is down 31% cumulatively, cargo vehicles -30.6%, and passenger buses -28%. The only segment with growth was intercity buses (+17.4%), which, in context, is like celebrating that the kitchen didn't catch fire when the living room did.
First-quarter retail sales totaled 6,496 units, an 18.1% decline. March did bring a flicker of light: wholesale sales of 2,984 units, +6.7% year-over-year, the first monthly growth after 14 consecutive months of contraction. ANPACT (Mexico's National Association of Bus, Truck, and Tractor-Trailer Producers) highlighted the figure with cautious optimism. The federal government introduced a Heavy Vehicle Industry Protection Program that includes tax incentives, financing facilities, and measures to limit used vehicles imported from the U.S. — currently 61 used units for every 100 new ones sold. That last figure explains much of the crisis.
"A 6.7% increase in March wholesale sales is good news. Reaching that figure after 14 consecutive months of declines also says something about the floor it's rising from."
Institutional impact: The heavy vehicle crisis is not merely cyclical: it has a structural component (imported used vehicles, U.S. tariffs, early replacement cycles from prior years) that a rate cut alone will not fix. For portfolios exposed to tractor-trailers: strengthen analysis of clients' payment capacity (service contracts, routes, current rates), and adjust LTV and residual values on new transactions. The government program could open an opportunity in the second half of the year if the tax incentives trigger deferred purchase decisions.
Investment and Nearshoring — The Second Wave Still on the Horizon
Mexico climbed to 19th place in the Kearney 2026 FDI Confidence Index, based on a survey of 507 senior executives conducted in January. The signal is positive in terms of global positioning, although the same index warns that the country's technological and innovation capabilities still fall below the standards that major investors demand. In parallel, analysts at Franklin Templeton and Banco Base anticipate a second wave of nearshoring in the second half of 2026, once the USMCA (T-MEC) review is resolved and there is greater certainty about the trade relationship with the U.S.
The nearshoring narrative remains strong in specific sectors: automotive and electromobility, electronics, medical devices, aerospace, and industrial logistics. The challenge is that more than 50% of incoming FDI is still reinvested profits from companies already established — not new entrants. The second wave, if it arrives, will be the one that turns nearshoring from a macroeconomic phenomenon into a real demand driver for leasing companies and industrial finance firms.
"A second wave of nearshoring in the second half of 2026 is the consensus base case. Whether the second half is met with the infrastructure needed to capitalize on it is the homework still pending."
Institutional impact: The geographic focus remains the winning states: Nuevo León, Coahuila, Chihuahua, and the Bajío region. In those geographies, financing for machinery, equipment, and productive assets has tailwinds. Leasing structures with dollar-denominated cash flows or long-term contracts tied to export supply chains represent an active opportunity. The domestic economy remains weak; sector risk appetite should focus where foreign capital is already deciding with its actions, not just its presentations.
Outlook for NBFIs — Regulation as Notice That Recess Is Over
In February, Moody's Local published its 2026 outlook for Non-Bank Financial Institutions (IFNBs/NBFIs), highlighting greater momentum driven by "Plan México" and the expansion of credit to SMEs and the unbanked consumer segment. The message is positive. Market conditions for a well-positioned SOFOM have not been this attractive in the past decade.
The regulatory counterweight is coming too: specialized consultants anticipate a tightening in 2026 across three areas — AML/CFT (PLD/FT), data protection, and operational resilience/corporate governance. This is no surprise. It is the natural consequence of growing within an ecosystem where the regulator also wants to grow. The opportunities do not lie in avoiding regulation — they lie in arriving prepared for it.
"A SOFOM that waits for the regulator to put its house in order is implicitly confessing that its house was not in order."
Institutional impact: A real growth opportunity in segments where banks are conservative, but with higher expectations for corporate governance and AML/CFT compliance. Review the 2026–2027 funding plan and raise the level of documentation and traceability in credit origination. This will be key in the face of greater scrutiny from rating agencies and authorities.
SOURCES:
AMDA — "Incrementos de 2.4 y 3.7% en la venta de vehículos ligeros nuevos en marzo y su acumulado 2026" (in Spanish)
AMDA — "Cinco de siete segmentos con avances en la venta de automotores ligeros nuevos durante marzo de 2026" (in Spanish)
La Jornada — "Venta de autos tuvo su mejor primer trimestre en 22 años" (Apr 7, 2026) (in Spanish)
Milenio — "Récord histórico de venta de autos en primer trimestre de 2026: Inegi" (in Spanish)
Mundo Ejecutivo CDMX — "Venta de autos en México rompe récord en el primer trimestre de 2026: crecen 3.7%" (in Spanish)
El Financiero — "La producción de camiones pesados se cae 30.4% en el 1T26" (Apr 14, 2026) (in Spanish)
INEGI — Registro Administrativo de la Industria Automotriz de Vehículos Pesados (RAIAVP), March 2026
La Razón — "Producción y exportación de vehículos pesados se desploman más de 30%" (Apr 14, 2026) (in Spanish)
Central Municipal — "Industria de vehículos pesados confía en programa del gobierno para reactivar el mercado" (Apr 13, 2026) (in Spanish)
Transporte Informativo — "Ventas de vehículos pesados repuntan en marzo, pese a caída acumulada en el primer trimestre: ANPACT" (in Spanish)
Excélsior — "México avanza al lugar 19 del ranking de confianza de Inversión Extranjera Directa 2026" (in Spanish)
Agente Digitalizado — "Nearshoring en México 2026: Datos, Industrias Ganadoras y Proyecciones a 2030" (in Spanish); Dinero en Imagen / Franklin Templeton — "México podría vivir su mayor boom de nearshoring en 2026, según expertos" (in Spanish)